Anthropogenic Global Warming RIP

The soft sciences are prone to fads, due in part to the fact that their particular disciplines deal with complex systems having huge numbers of poorly understood variables, and partly due to the unfortunate genetic tendency of humans to form groups whose members oppose those not in the group and engage in petty status competition within the group. This status competition includes the competition for grant money and self serving political posturing. Anthropogenic global warming was the perfect storm for this group ID psychosis, but now, as Thomas Kuhn would have appreciated, the AGW group is increasingly unable to suppress the march of science. Their arguments are becoming petty even as their political juggernaut drives on. The bubble looks soon to burst.

The science that is defeating AGW involves two issues: feedback and solar activity. The computer models say that the climate's response to increasing CO2 is positive feedback which makes the problem worse. Roy Spencer is one of the leading scientists showing that the feedback is more likely negative, and thus tends to regulate earth's temperature not exacerbate it. Global climate computer models should be seriously questioned. James Hansen had too much faith in his babies.

Solar activity (surprise!) is increasingly looking like the primary driver of earth's temperature changes. David Archibald is one of many solar scientists who is building the case that earth's temperature is highly correlated with the varying lengths of the roughly eleven year solar cycles. With the delayed onset of solar cycle 24 (SC24) it looks like earth may be in for a cold ten years instead of the fever that Al Gore is betting his political career on.

You can keep an eye on the sun here.